NFL week 5 recap: Bettors ride favourites to dominate sportsbooks in a wild weekend

NFL Week 5 of the 2024 season delivered a unique spectacle, one that had bettors celebrating and sportsbooks licking their wounds. The balance of power shifted dramatically, with the favourites dominating and underdogs delivering just enough surprises to keep things interesting. In a typically unpredictable NFL landscape, Week 5 offered bettors a rare windfall.

When the public wins, the sportsbooks groan

The mantra for NFL betting usually goes something like, “fade the public.” After all, when the masses all jump on the same bandwagon, it typically signals doom for their bets. However, Week 5 was an outlier. Favourites went 10-3 straight up (SU) and 9-4 against the spread (ATS), turning the tables on sportsbooks. Bettors who backed these popular picks got a significant return on their investments, while sportsbooks like Westgate SuperBook and Caesars Sportsbook took a beating. Jay Kornegay, vice president at Westgate SuperBook, said, “It was our worst Sunday of the year because of all the favourites that came in.” He acknowledged, though, that this type of week had been long overdue. “The NFL’s been treating us really well so far, so we were expecting a week like this.” And a week like this it was. With heavy favourites like the Denver Broncos, Baltimore Ravens, and Minnesota Vikings all delivering big wins, bettors rode the wave to substantial paydays.

Denver bounce back

One of the biggest results for bettors came from Denver, where the Broncos ended an eight-game losing streak to their AFC West rivals, the Las Vegas Raiders, with a commanding 34-18 victory. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix led the charge, but the defining moment came when cornerback Patrick Surtain intercepted Raiders’ quarterback Gardner Minshew and took it back 100 yards for a touchdown. It was the longest pick-six in franchise history and effectively buried the Raiders’ hopes of a comeback.

This game was an enormous blow to sportsbooks. “We got destroyed,” Kornegay lamented. Bettors were firmly behind Denver, and with the Broncos closing as 3-point favourites, the books couldn’t recover. One BetMGM gambler even placed a six-figure moneyline bet on the Broncos (-150), adding to the misery for the house.

London calling: Vikings keep rolling

Across the pond, another favourite delivered a win, much to the dismay of sportsbooks. The Minnesota Vikings, one of the few unbeaten teams left in the league, took care of business early in London, beating the New York Jets 23-17. The game kicked off at 6:30 a.m. PST, meaning those brave enough to rise before the sun could already count their winnings by breakfast.

Aaron Rodgers had a rough outing for the Jets, tossing three interceptions, much to the glee of bettors who had placed big wagers on Minnesota. One bettor at Caesars collected $250,000 on a moneyline wager (-145), and another pocketed $110,000 after betting on the Vikings to cover. “The early game put us in a hole,” said Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director at Red Rock Resort. “We were huge Jets fans this morning, and they’re not a very good team.”

The Vikings’ win wasn’t just a straight-up victory; they also improved to a perfect 5-0 ATS, keeping their backers happy week after week.

Ravens fly high in overtime thriller

The Baltimore Ravens delivered yet another painful blow to sportsbooks in a wild, high-scoring 41-38 overtime victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Poor Joe Burrow can’t buy a win. He is only the third QB in NFL history to throw at least 12 touch-downs and complete at least 70 percent of his passes (1370 passing yards), yet has a 1-4 losing record. Surely Burrow is a fantasy favourite in week six against the fifteenth ranked defence of the New York Giants? This was a game bettors loved for its offensive fireworks, as public money came in heavily on the Ravens. Cincinnati, despite holding a 10-point lead with just over five minutes left in regulation, couldn’t hang on. The Bengals missed a game-winning field goal attempt in overtime after recovering a Lamar Jackson fumble, giving Justin Tucker a chance to seal the win for the Ravens. His 48-yard field goal did just that, sending Baltimore fans into a frenzy and bettors to the cashier’s window. The Ravens’ win was one of the largest losses of the morning for the SuperBook.

Underdogs roar late

While favourites dominated much of the day, sportsbooks weren’t entirely out of luck. Two massive upsets saved them from total disaster: the Arizona Cardinals’ 24-23 shock win over the San Francisco 49ers, and the New York Giants’ 29-20 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams closed as 7-point underdogs, and their outright victories helped trim the potential losses for bookmakers. The Seahawks’ loss, in particular, was a heartbreaker for bettors. As the most popular pick in Circa’s Survivor contest, 160 entries were wiped out after Seattle’s defeat. The Giants clinched the game in dramatic fashion with Isaiah Simmons blocking a potential game-tying field goal, and Bryce Ford-Wheaton returning it 60 yards for a touchdown, putting the final nail in the Seahawks’ coffin. For Arizona, their win over the 49ers was equally stunning. Trailing 23-21 in the fourth quarter, the Cardinals capitalised on a Jordan Mason fumble and drove down the field for a game-winning field goal with less than two minutes left. Brock Purdy’s interception on the ensuing drive sealed the game, eliminating 86 more Circa Survivor entries and leaving many San Francisco backers in disbelief. Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars, noted, “The Giants’ win over the Seahawks made favourites of a touchdown or greater just 1-6-1 this season against the spread, which was the best result for the book on Sunday.”

Not all favourites were winners

While the day was largely a win for bettors, some favourites still stumbled. The Texans, who closed as 1-point favourites, allowed the Bills to mount a furious comeback from a 20-3 deficit before sneaking out a 23-20 victory on a last-second, 59-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn. The game stayed under the 48-point total, offering some solace to books after an otherwise painful morning.

The Dolphins also squeaked by the Patriots 15-10 in another low-scoring affair, which saw New England’s would-be game-winning touchdown overturned on replay with just over a minute left. One bettor at Caesars won $250,000 on a moneyline wager (-125) on Miami, adding to the sting for the house.

Betting stats

The Vikings are now a perfect 5-0 ATS, one of only two undefeated teams in that category, alongside the Kansas City Chiefs (3-1 ATS).

Touchdown or greater favourites are now just 1-6-1 ATS this season, showing how tricky it can be to lay the points in the NFL. Denver’s 100-yard pick-six by Patrick Surtain was the longest interception return in franchise history, and a dagger to Raiders bettors. In Circa’s Survivor contest, only 227 of the original 14,266 entries remain after Week 5, largely thanks to the Giants’ and Cardinals’ upset wins. NFL Week 5 was one of those rare weekends where the stars aligned for the betting public. Favourites dominated, underdogs provided just enough drama, and sportsbooks faced a long Monday morning of settling big payouts. As they say in the betting world, “Every dog has its day,” but in Week 5, it was the favourite’s turn to have theirs.

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